Tuesday, 25 March 2014

Predicting the Premier League table

With the title race tightening, I decided to do some simple Maths to give myself an idea of how the Premier League table is going to look on May 11th.

I have two sets of results based on, firstly, the current form; i.e. the last 6 games of home and away record each; of the top seven teams and here are the standings.

Current Form
Manchester City................................. 89
Liverpool............................................ 87
Chelsea............................................... 86
Arsena................................................ 77
Everton............................................... 70
Tottenham.......................................... 69
Manchester United............................ 65

And secondly, the league form i.e. the points taken per game in both home and away fixtures over this entire season and predicting the points taken by all the top seven sides over their next home/away fixtures.

League Form
Manchester City................................. 86
Liverpool............................................ 84
Chelsea............................................... 83
Arsenal................................................79
Everton............................................... 71
Tottenham.......................................... 69
Manchester United............................ 64

Well, the only difference between the positions occured between Chelsea and Liverpool while Manchester City look on course to take the premier league title.

BUT...
Here are some "buts" to consider:
(numbered on the basis of the easiest to the toughest fixture the clubs have)

1) Chelsea have 7 games to go out of which the highest ranking team which they have to play, apart from only Liverpool (ranked 2), is Stoke City which are currenlty 10th. Certainly seems the easiest run of games if you don't think about home and away situations playing their part.
2) Spurs have 7 games to go, and like Chelsea, they are again facing Liverpool away, with the next team ranked highest is again, Stoke.
3) Arsenal have Manchester City(3) coming to Emirates and Everton(6) to play at Goodison Park.
4) Manchester United will be done playing Manchester City as I get done with this article and after this fixture, they only have Everton to deal with. Southampton and Newcastle are away games for United and can steal a few points from the reigning champions unless.
5) Liverpool have 5 home games and 3 away. That certainly looks great, but to remind you, in the 3 home games, they have to face Spurs, City and Chelsea; which if Liverpool win will make them virtual champions of the Premier League. But its not a cup of English Tea they are sipping.
6) Everton enjoy the same fate as the Merseysiders will be facing Arsenal, City and United at home. But the have dangerous away games against Newcastle and Southampton
7) Manchester City have the toughest of fixtures coming up. They have United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton to deal with in away fixtures. That's a tough run in but they have got GAMES in hand.

How the Premier League Table stands now?
If Maths could predict the Premier League Table, we wouldn't be watching it anymore. So put your Algorithms at rest, the Maths handbook inside the drawyer, and enjoy the beautiful game of Football.

Anything-Can-Happen
Wandered-Lost-Crazy

No comments:

Post a Comment